The Status of the “Trump Revolution”: 2025.07.14
Six Months In? Stalemates Everywhere
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EPM notes that the world is now roughly six months into what it calls “Trump’s Revolution.” Back then, the MAGA movement promised its supporters swift, decisive victories across all major fronts and a bold new path for the future.
So where do things stand today?
On the economic front, Trump’s policy remains anchored in aggressive tariffs, intended to reset international trade flows. Yet progress has been limited: to date, only two trade deals, with the UK and Vietnam, have been concluded. A tentative truce with China also appears to be holding, for now. However, Trump remains far from securing agreements with key trading partners, notably Europe and Mexico, while Canada remains on hold. In fact, Trump warned of the imposition of 30% tariff may be imposed on these regions as early as August 1st.
On the geopolitical front, EPM believes that Trump was again charmed last week by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in Washington, a dynamic we see as undermining efforts toward a meaningful ceasefire in Gaza. Recent developments on the ground reinforce this view. As for Iran, EPM sees the current moment as a lull in fighting, not a step toward diplomacy. The U.S.–Israel alliance continues to demand that Iran cease all forms of nuclear enrichment, leaving little space for productive negotiation.
A detailed analysis is highlighted below. We also look at:
The oil market’s focus on the Trump Trade War, as fears about oil demand growth are pervasive
The debate about how much oil Saudi Arabia actually produced in June – on quotum, slightly over, or massively over?
The IEA’s forecast of oil demand growth this year, the slowest since 2009
Russia’s surprising support for the US – Israel Alliance in the latter’s conflict with Iran
The US warning of the Lebanese government, that it must act faster to disarm Hezbollah or risk being taken over by Syria; where EPM explains why this is really a veiled US threat
The US pressure on Japan and Australia to commit to specific levels of support for the US in case of a US – China war over Taiwan
The impact of the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to increase the amount of biofuels that oil refiners must blend into conventional fuel, which is turning out to be a boom for the US biofuel industry and soybean farming industries
General Energy
The oil market is focused on Trump’s Trade War, and, for now, according to Bloomberg, it appears the consensus outlook for crude demand is that it will worsen. In addition to the trade war, a dour economic outlook for China – a top crude importer – is fueling concerns the market will struggle to absorb extra supply from OPCE+ in the second half of the year.
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects global oil demand to grow at its slowest pace since the aftermath of the 2008–09 financial crisis – excluding the exceptional downturn in 2020, reports the Financial Times. The IEA forecasts an increase of just 700,000 barrels per day this year, marking the smallest annual rise in demand in over a decade. The agency notes particularly weak demand in countries affected by trade tensions, including China (-160,000 b/d), Japan (-80,000 b/d), South Korea (-70,000 b/d), and Mexico (-40,000 b/d). These year-on-year declines contrast sharply with the more optimistic projection from OPEC+, which expects demand to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024 – nearly double the IEA’s estimate.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) accused Saudi Arabia of exceeding its production quota by more than 400,000 barrels per day, according to Bloomberg. The IEA estimates that Saudi crude output surged by 700,000 bpd last month, reaching 9.8 million bpd – its highest level in two years. Simultaneously, the agency reports that exports rose by 500,000 bpd, refinery runs increased by 300,000 bpd compared to May, and crude inventories also climbed. Given these combined increases, the IEA concludes that actual production must have exceeded the kingdom’s officially stated figure of 9.4 million bpd.
The S&P Global offers a different perspective. It estimates that in June, OPEC increased production by 470,000 barrels per day to reach 27.49 million bpd, while non-OPEC allies added another 130,000 bpd, bringing their total to 14.30 million bpd – both compared to May levels. According to S&P, Saudi Arabia contributed 400,000 bpd to this overall increase, pushing its output to 9.54 million bpd – a two-year high.
Macroeconomics & Technology
The US’s trade talks with the EU and Mexico, both important trade partners of the US, are not progressing as much as president Trump had hoped. In response, on Saturday he threatened to impose a 30% tariff on both, starting on August 1, writes Reuters. Trump made the announcement in separate letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, which he posted on his social media account. At the same time, in his letter Trump demands that the EU “allow complete, open Market Access to the United States, with no Tariff being charged to us”.
As to the importance of this particular subject, Reuters writes that when combining goods, services and investment, the EU and the United States are each other's largest trading partners by far. Their trade dispute could jeopardise $9.5 trillion of business in what is the world's most important commercial relationship. The EU has leverage in the negotiations with US, therefore, and it appears willing to use it. The EU released a statement saying it was ready to retaliate to defend its interests if the United States pressed ahead with imposing a 30% tariff on European goods from August 1, and the governments of Germany and France expressed explicit support for this position.
Geopolitics
As to Gaza, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu left Washington DC on Friday without a deal for a ceasefire, writes the Associated Press. Trump very much wanted to achieve a deal during Netanyahu’s visit, AP writes. But EPM notes, Trump must have learned by now that geopolitics is not the same as real estate, especially when seasoned politicians such as Netanyahu or Putin are involved. Netanyahu has no interest in a ceasefire deal, so much was clear from his public announcement before he left for DC. Upon leaving he re-iterated that Israel wants to reserve the right to continue fighting against Hamas “until it is destroyed”. Clearly, since the negotiations are with Hamas, this Israeli demand makes a ceasefire deal practically impossible. EPM notes that in this negotiation situation, only hard pressure on both sides can deliver the necessary breakthrough. But the US has never been willing to apply this pressure on Israel, and indications are that during Netanyahu’s visit last week, he actually brought Trump under his spell again, charming him with flattery. In the EPM assessment, this leaves the Israeli “concentration camp” plan the most likely pathway forward for Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen told Channel 14 that his ministry will not help rebuild infrastructure in Gaza. “Gaza should remain an island of ruins to the next decades,” he said, according to the Associated Press. And, Israeli soldiers confess that they use drones to randomly kill civilians in Gaza, and then for fun watch the drone footage as stray dogs eat the deceased’s bodies, writes +972 Magazine.
Upon Netanyahu’s return to Israel, on Saturday, the Israeli army fatally shot at least 31 Palestinians on their way to an aid distribution site, while airstrikes killed at least 28 Palestinians including four children, writes the Associated Press. Then on Sunday Israel killed a further 32 Gazans, writes the Associated Press. Among those killed on Sunday were 10 people who were struck by Israeli forces as they gathered at a water collection point in Nuseirat. Among them were six children. As a result, the number of people who have been killed directly by Israeli fire now tops 58,000. Horrifyingly, Women and children make up more than half of the dead in the war.
As to Iran, Russian president Vladimir Putin has reportedly told both US president Trump and Iranian officials that he supports the idea of a nuclear deal in which Iran is unable to enrich uranium, writes Axios. The report is based on statements by anonymous European and Israeli officials. “Putin would support zero enrichment. He encouraged the Iranians to work towards that in order to make negotiations with the Americans more favorable. The Iranians said they won't consider it," one European official said. EPM notes that if true, this effectively means Russia has joined the US – Israel Alliance position, rather than the Iranian position. To the Iranians, that would feel like betrayal, we expect.
If reports about Russia’s shifting position are accurate, Iran now finds itself increasingly isolated on the international stage, with China as its only significant potential backer. This context helps explain why, despite recent geopolitical setbacks, Tehran remains open to renewed nuclear negotiations with the United States.
According to Bloomberg, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, stated:
“The Americans insist on returning to the negotiating table,” adding that Tehran has received “multiple messages” and is weighing its options regarding the timing, location, and structure of potential talks.
He also emphasized the need for security guarantees:
“Some assurances have been expressed that there will be no war again, and we are reviewing these,” he said, without elaborating. “If an opportunity arises to secure the interests of the Iranian people, we won’t miss it. The doors of diplomacy are never closed.”
Araghchi reiterated that cooperation with the IAEA continues, but noted that future monitoring requests will now be reviewed on a “case-by-case basis.”
From EPM’s perspective, Iran appears to be clinging to the illusion that a negotiated settlement is still possible. We call it an illusion because such an outcome would require a baseline of fairness, a mutual recognition of rights and interests. But the U.S.–Israel alliance does not appear to believe that any state in the Middle East, outside of Israel, possesses rights worth honoring.
One need only look at how the U.S. treats Lebanon - as discussed below - to understand that Washington’s stated assurances are, in practice, unenforceable and politically hollow. So long as Trump remains ideologically aligned with Netanyahu, we should expect the U.S.–Israel bloc to continue efforts to destabilize Iran and push it toward state failure.
In this geopolitical reality, any American “assurance” that it will refrain from future attacks is effectively meaningless. There is no mechanism, legal, diplomatic, or military, that can hold the alliance accountable. If Iran doubts this assessment, it need only ask its partners in Hezbollah how well the ceasefire guarantees in Lebanon have held up. If Tehran genuinely seeks deterrence, it must pursue one of two options:
Develop aerial defense capabilities sufficient to make another U.S.–Israel strike prohibitively costly, or
Achieve credible second-strike capacity, which in practical terms means a deployable nuclear weapon, possibly delivered via hypersonic missile systems.
On to Lebanon, the US is increasing its pressure on the Lebanese government in order to make it execute the US plan to disarm Hezbollah quickly. US special envoy Tom Barrack warned the Lebanese government on Friday that if it does not act quickly, the country risks becoming “Bilad us Sham” again, writes The National. EPM notes this is not a warning but a threat. The context is that historically, during the Ottoman era, Lebanon was part of the province of “Sham”. After the Ottoman Empire collapsed, Lebanon first became part of the “independent” country of Syria, then became an independent country, and then was invaded and occupied by the Syrians. The reason Barrack’s words are a threat is that he knows the US controls the new Syrian government, which would not do anything without first discussing and aligning with the US. As far as international relations are concerned at EPM we even believe the situation is the opposite, with the Al Sharaa government doing nothing until the US instructs it to do something.
In Asia, the U.S. is pressuring Japan and Australia to clarify their roles in the event of a war with China over Taiwan, reports the Financial Times. Elbridge Colby, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, has pushed the issue in recent meetings with Japanese and Australian defense officials.
The talks have included calls for increased defense spending in light of growing concerns over China’s posture toward Taiwan. However, explicit commitments related to a potential Taiwan conflict represent a new, and more provocative, U.S. demand.
According to the FT, the request has left Asian officials uneasy and uncertain. Not only is it difficult to make concrete commitments in response to a hypothetical and ambiguous scenario, but the U.S. has also sent mixed signals, such as raising doubts about the AUKUS pact, further muddying its strategic messaging.
Energy Transition
U.S. biofuel producers are projected to consume more than half of the country’s soybean oil supply next year, Reuters reports. In its latest monthly supply-and-demand update, the U.S. Department of Agriculture sharply raised its forecast for soybean oil use by biofuel makers in the 2025/26 marketing year (beginning October 1), to a record 15.5 billion pounds—an 11.5% increase from last month’s estimate and 26.5% higher than the current year. Driving the revised outlook is a recent proposal by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to raise biofuel blending requirements for oil refiners in 2026 and 2027, while also discouraging biofuel imports.