Energy, Geopolitics & Money - Special Analysis
EPM examines the geopolitical manoeuvrings of China and Russia vis-à-vis the US and the roles played by North Korea, Iran, and Saudi Arabia
EPM received an interesting question on our view regarding geopolitics between the US, China and Russia, and the role played by countries such as North Korea, Iran and Saudi Arabia in the overall geopolitical scheme of things.
Countries engage in geopolitics in order to secure their strategic long-term interests (as they see them). So, we first need to identify what countries believe their interests are.
China
China intends to break the stranglehold placed upon it by the international system designed by the US in the post WWII period AND it wants to replace this system with one that is more favourable to its interests. To achieve this, China’s primary focus is to have unimpeded control of access to the Pacific Ocean. This is why it is focused on controlling the China Sea, as around it, Taiwan, the Philippines, South Korea and Japan control China’s access to the Pacific. Only after China achieves this objective can it become a global actor on the geopolitical stage. Until such time it achieves this objective, it is effectively under US blockade. If the US so desired, it could close China off from access to the seas through its supporting its allies.
Russia
Russia intends to break the stranglehold placed upon it by the US designed post-Soviet world. Initiatives such as establishing the Baltic countries and Ukraine by-and-large closed off its access to the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Enlargement of NATO effectively placed US military forces (which leads and controls NATO) on Russia’s borders without there being any natural borders to limit Russia’s enemies in attacking its capitals of Moscow and Sint Petersburg. The US proposed missile defense system – the one proposed to be built across Poland and Romania – is designed to significantly limit Russia’s nuclear deterrence capabilities. Russia, therefore, wants to limit, if not prevent, US encirclement and it is focused on resolving these geopolitical ‘threats’ at present. EPM notes Putin’s letter to Biden and NATO from November 2021 in which he outlined Russia's demands and expectations regarding the security situation in Europe, especially in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the future expansion of NATO.
China’s Pacific Strategy
As mentioned above, China is primarily focused on gaining unrestricted access to the Pacific. This is why it considers Taiwan as critically important. At the same time, it is trying to avoid being dragged into a war the US can use to justify actions against China similar to those it is using against Russia post its Ukraine invasion (build international coalition against China, drive rearmament of this coalition to fight against China, and place broad sanctions on China’s trade). Clearly, this would be devastating for China’s economy as it depends on international trade (unlike Russia which depends on natural resource exports). It is not impossible that at one stage China will ask North Korea to start a war, but at present, that is not in China’s interest. So it is very unlikely in the near to medium term, in our view.
Likelihood of US – Chinese Hostilities
In fact, we are of the view that the US would like a war to start in the China Sea sooner rather than later, in particular one that is fought by Japan and South Korea and the Philippines) as China’s military strength is reportedly strengthening by the day while the US’ is reportedly stagnant / weakening, and as such the US has the biggest chance of winning a hot war that takes place tomorrow, rather than the one that takes place sometime in the future.
China’s Geopolitical Needs in Ukraine
While China is focused on the Pacific, it does not want Russia to lose the War in Ukraine. As a defeat in the Ukraine would leave it alone and thus exposed in the international arena. China cannot be seen to be providing direct military material support to Russia, as this would expose it to sanctions. So it supports on a more limited scale from behind the scenes – including by allowing / asking North Korea to support Russia.
North Korea
North Korea is in a different league altogether. It is small, weak, and the regime is reliant on China for its survival both economically and militarily. Therefore, it is unable to engage in geopolitics independently. It has no international interests to secure other than continuing to “earn” China’s support. Without it, it would implode and its ruling elites would lose everything. This means that anyone who wants to understand or forecast North Korean actions, should really look at China and its geopolitical interests and plans. If anything, North Korea is a proxy for China - who is eager to be seen not supporting Russia - in the supply of weapons and ammunition to Russia for use in the Ukraine.
North Korea and its Nuclear Arsenal
We also note, that nuclear weapons of the type North Korea is pursuing are not designed to attack warships such as Naval carriers, so it would be a waste for them to use them for that purpose. As to what nukes are designed for, the fundamental deterrence capability via the threat of "I can wipe your city off the map if you attack me" semi-accurate delivery is key. This is why we can see NK's efforts focused on developing rocket technology – the deliver mechanism – as without it, their nukes pose no practical threat to anyone. We are also of opinion that NK rocket technology is no match for US missile defense systems.
Iran and Russia’s Geopolitical Interests
We could discuss Iranian support for Russia also. This is an alignment of interests. It is also in the interest of Iran if the US is weakened, as this gives it a stronger position in its negotiations with the US to end the sanctions on it. This is why Iran supports Russia with its drone technology and manufacturing capabilities (and instructed the Houthi’s to disrupt Red Sea shipping).
Saudi Arabia – US Ally
As to Saudi Arabia, that is a different matter altogether. Despite outward appearances, EPM is of the opinion it is an American agent. It should be remembered the US created MBS – it invited him to the US, introduced him to all members of Congress and the Senate, ensured his face made it on the cover of Time to give him international recognition before he took complete control of Saudi Arabia. When the Saudi’s negotiated with Iran in China, they did this in close coordination with the US. The Saudi’s depend on US weapon supplies, training and maintenance, and intelligence and coordination – without the US it is effectively militarily powerless. In regard to the Ukraine, Saudi has clearly aligned with the US against Russia. It even hosted the US led talks on Ukraine in 2023, to which Russia was not invited. The reason Saudi Arabia tries to appear as an independent actor, is that gives it the appearance of strength and independence. If it is openly seen as a US agent, it will lose both domestic support and international credibility. In short, Saudi is a trap set by the US for Russia and China.