IRAN’S STOCK PILE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL
As our good readers know, EPM likes to examine topics of interest that are often muddled with strong emotions, counter factuals, and questionable counter claims. What drives our analysis is how an issue may impact global markets.
One such issue is the question of Iran.
It is obvious to EPM, Iran wants to develop nuclear weapons. Ultimately, EPM evaluates everything Iran does in terms of what kind of bargaining chip it represents and what can it get in exchange for obtaining or dropping nuclear weapons as it negotiates to get a good deal (if not the best) from the US and Israel (like any good actor on the geopolitical stage would do).
Nuclear weapons represent the ultimate weapon of self defense albeit, in Iran’s specific case, with limited offensive use (which is the greatest non-rational source of fear for Iran possessing them). Israel, the country that has significant political and diplomatic issues with Iran, has about 100 warheads in its arsenal (but that number is largely speculative as it has never publicly confirmed how many it truly has).
EPM sees the idea of preventing nuclear proliferation from the view that it is propaganda designed to get the global public to support maintaining the current balance of power. Those that have nukes are on top of the food chain, will remain there for the foreseeable future because of their position and they are capable of forcing everyone else to do their bidding due to the instruments of incredible destruction they have at their disposal.
The idea that Iran is a danger to the world and global order is also propaganda. It wants to be recognized as a regional player in the Middle East with valid interests across the region. According to certain "informal rules of engagement”, this recognition would allow it to become a regional actor. This is a normal desire and a natural state of behaviour for all countries. The colonized mindset we see in most countries today, such as Germany, Canada, Japan is thus, in EPM’s view, abnormal.
EPM sees no moral issue with Iran developing nuclear weapons therefore. They themselves have said they are looking at them for self defense purposes (just like Russia, China, North Korea, France, India, Pakistan, South Africa, the UK, and the US). And if any country has a justification for wanting a capable deterrent and a right to self defense it should include Iran.
As for geopolitical implications of Iran’ obtaining nuclear weapons, EPM predicts Israel will resist the idea with all its might because it alters the balance of power in the region. Israel would no longer be the hegemon in the Middle East or GCC region. And, as the fear of Iran by many Israelis is high, the Israeli government fears that a good part of its population would relocate to other parts of the world where they hold their second nationality, such as, the US, UK, and/or Europe.
Are there challenges with Iran? Sure, we are not blind to them but this post is not focused on examining them. Nevertheless, it does not, from a purely geopolitical and diplomatic perspective, alter the analysis of Iran’s reasons for wanting nuclear weapons.
Hence, EPM imagines a new deal where Iran agrees to stop its enrichment program. But of course, last time Iran agreed to do that with the US, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal although Iran was abiding with the agreement’s terms and conditions (and starting to buy a lot of Western goods and services). This of course, makes the likelihood of a new deal less likely as why would Iran agree to any terms if their is a risk the West will simply pull up stakes and void a deal made in good faith? And, knowing Trump the way we (all) do, based on past behaviour, why would he negotiate another deal in the first place (assuming of course that he wins in November 2024)?